July 11, 2025
4
min read
💬 Daily Observation
“Once we realize that imperfect understanding is the human condition, there’s no shame in being wrong, only in failing to correct our mistakes.” — George Soros
This Friday’s reminder feels on point: embracing self-knowledge and conscious discipline isn’t just about avoiding FOMO, it’s about catching mistakes early, reflecting on them calmly, and correcting course before small errors become big setbacks.
As the weekend approaches, pause to appreciate how far you’ve come, revisit your core strategy, and remember that humility and steady reflection can be your greatest edge in markets that never sit still - especially now!
☕️ So grab your coffee and let’s dive into today’s fresh edition of Diversification Daily.
🗞️ Today's stories that matter (and why)
1. ₿ Bitcoin hits fresh all-time high, crypto stocks jump
Bitcoin surged about 4% to $118,071.19, lifting crypto stocks like MicroStrategy, Riot Platforms, and Coinbase ahead of “Crypto Week” in Washington (July 14–18).
The run reflects growing corporate treasury allocations and optimism around three pending pro-crypto bills: the Genius Act, Clarity Act, and Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act. Still, volatility risks linger amid skepticism from regulators like Senator Elizabeth Warren.
Why it matters: A fresh BTC high underscores institutional adoption but also reminds investors to brace for swings in this volatile diversifier.
Assets in focus: Alternatives
2. 🏠 Home sellers yank homes off market after price-cut fatigue
In May, US home delistings jumped 47% year-over-year in metros like Miami, Phoenix, and Houston as frustrated sellers prefer pulling listings to chopping prices. Realtor.com data show price reductions hit a June high (21% of listings), yet many owners decide it’s better to wait than accept further markdowns.
Agents suggest renting or a temporary delist, but experts warn that without addressing oversupply, relisting won’t solve price pressure.
Why it matters: Rising delistings signal deepening buyer’s-market conditions and potential entry points for long-term real-estate investors.
Assets in focus: Real Estate
3. 📊 US stocks brace for CPI test
Equities, which have climbed roughly 26% since April, now hinge on June’s Consumer Price Index release due Tuesday, a key guide for Fed rate-cut expectations.
Major banks and tech firms entering earnings season will face extra scrutiny if core inflation comes in hotter than the 0.3 % month-over-month consensus. A surprise upside could push Treasury yields higher and pressure stock valuations.
Why it matters: A better than expected CPI print may delay Fed rate cuts, rattling both bond and equity markets by increasing borrowing costs and reducing the appeal of risk assets.
Assets in focus: Equities
4. 🌏 China’s growth slips to 5.1% in Q2
A Reuters poll sees China’s Q2 GDP rising 5.1% year-over-year, down from 5.4% in Q1, as US tariffs, a property downturn, and weak consumer demand weigh on activity.
Beijing has cut rates and boosted infrastructure and subsidies, yet analysts warn deeper structural issues like deflation and high household debt persist. Further deceleration to 4.5% in Q3 could force bolder stimulus measures after July’s Politburo meeting.
Why it matters: Slowing Chinese growth dampens global commodity demand and emerging-market asset performance.
Assets in focus: Currencies
5. ⚙️ IEA says oil market tighter than it looks
Despite a forecasted 2.1 mb/d supply rise versus 0.7 mb/d demand growth in 2025, the IEA (International Energy Agency) warns that strong summer refinery runs, backwardated futures and robust travel fuel burn are keeping physical markets tight, and Brent crude near $70.
OPEC+’s accelerated unwinding of cuts has done little to ease the squeeze. Early signs of tariff-related demand declines in some economies could ease pressure, but any new disruptions would likely push prices higher.
Why it matters: Persistent tightness signals that commodity-exposed portfolios may need active hedges against further price shocks.
Assets in focus: Commodities
🌀 Diversification Score – Have you evaluated your portfolio's diversification?
Are you spread across the right risk factors—or leaning on just a few big bets?
📊 Market Movements Snapshot
Asset Classes:
- 🟢 Emerging Market Equities: +11.32% YTD. Lifted by signs of stabilization in China, where easing inflation and targeted stimulus in Q2 supported local markets, and by policy tailwinds in India and Brazil that bolstered regional demand.
- 🟢 Real Estate: +2.43 YTD. The US housing market has remained surprisingly resilient despite high mortgage rates, around 6.7 %, and near-record home-price peaks, as limited inventory kept prices elevated and buyers cautious yet persistent.
For the full list, click here
Sectors:
- 🟢 Industrials: +12.37% YTD. Powered by sustained infrastructure spending and reshoring initiatives in advanced economies, which have boosted demand for machinery, transport, and construction equipment.
- 🔴 Goverment: -0.22% YTD. Government bond prices slipped as 10-year Treasury yields climbed—driven by concerns over US fiscal deficits and a recent sovereign credit downgrade—sending the sector modestly into the red.
For the full list, click here
🤯 Alternative investment highlight: 👜Hermès Birkin Bags, the luxury asset that keeps rising
The Hermès Birkin handbag has emerged as a standout alternative asset, posting an average annual value increase of 14.2% since 1980, according to Baghunter’s 2016 study.
In 2024, Birkin bags were the top-performing luxury collectible with a 2.8% price gain, even as the overall Knight Frank Luxury Investment Index fell by 3.3%. Notably, Baghunter’s data show that Birkin values have never registered a year of decline, underscoring their stability compared to other passion assets.
Some Birkin styles have been known to double in value over five to ten years, rivaling gains in traditional equities and far outpacing gold, while outpacing the S&P 500’s average annual return of 8.65% and gold’s 1.9% over the same period.
A Birkin 25 that retailed at approximately $11,400 in 2020 now starts closer to $12,700, reflecting both Hermès’ periodic price hikes and robust secondary-market demand. The apex of collector fervor was underscored in July 2025, when Jane Birkin’s original prototype fetched a record €8.6 million at Sotheby’s.
Baghunter also predicts that Birkin values may double again within the next decade, driven by perpetual scarcity and cultural cachet .
This combination of consistent long-term growth, outperformance in downturn years, and headline-grabbing sales highlights how scarcity, brand prestige, and structured secondary markets can create a truly uncorrelated, high-potential asset.
🧠 From the Education Center: Diversification, a Practical Guide
Diversification is powerful—but only when it’s done right. Learn how to spread risk smartly across assets, geographies, and time.
📤
Share with a friend
Forward this email if Diversification Daily keeps your investing compass steady.
🚨 Not a robo-advisor. Not a human.
It’s your AI-powered co-pilot, scanning every part of your financial life and giving you personalized suggestions to optimize it.
You stay in control. PortfolioPilot makes you sharper.
Try it free→ PortfolioPilot.com
Feel free to reply to this email with any questions or feedback.
See you tomorrow,
©2025 diversification.com.
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES: diversification.com is a technology product of Global Predictions Inc, a Registered Investment Advisor with the SEC. The information provided on diversification.com is for informational and educational purposes only. It should not be considered financial advice. Investment advisory services are only provided to investors who become Global Predictions clients. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Investing involves risk.
The content on this website, including market analysis, diversification scores, and other information, represents our observations of current market conditions and should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular investment or security.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss in a declining market.
The diversification score and related analysis are based on a proprietary methodology that evaluates various aspects of portfolio composition. They should not be the sole basis for making investment decisions.
DATA SOURCES: Market data, asset class information, sector analysis, and other financial information displayed on this website are sourced from StockNewsAPI, Morningstar, AlphaVantage, IEX, and TradingEconomics. We make every effort to ensure data accuracy but cannot guarantee that all information is complete, accurate, or timely.
USER COUNT DISCLOSURE: References to "30,000 users/subscribers" reflect the combined user base across Global Predictions, PortfolioPilot.com, and diversification.com platforms as of February 15, 2025.
REGULATORY INFORMATION: For Global Predictions' Form ADV Part 2A and other regulatory disclosures, please visit portfoliopilot.com/disclosures.
FIDUCIARY ADVICE: Fiduciary financial advice is available through PortfolioPilot.com. The tools and calculators on diversification.com are for educational purposes and do not constitute personalized investment advice.
Before making any investment decisions, you should consult with a qualified financial advisor, tax professional, or legal counsel to ensure that your investment strategy aligns with your individual needs and circumstances.
Global Predictions Inc. and its affiliates, officers, directors, employees, and agents do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the information provided on this website and shall not be liable for any losses, damages, or costs that may arise from its use.
*For compliance reasons, these stories are complete fiction with made up characters and portfolios. Possibly influenced by real interactions, and definitely not financial advice."