July 17, 2025

min read

💬 Daily Observation

“The stock market is a giant distraction to the business of investing.” — John C. Bogle

Stocks are only one piece of the puzzle, and staring at every tick can pull you off course. Remember: a well-balanced mix of assets is your shield when markets wobble.

☕️ So grab your coffee and let’s dive into today’s fresh edition of Diversification Daily.

🗞️ Today's stories that matter (and why)

1. 🛒 Retail sales rebound 0.6% in June, beating forecasts

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After May’s unexpected 0.9% drop, US retail sales rose 0.6% in June, well above the 0.1% forecast, driven by price gains on tariff-affected goods.

Core retail spending (ex-autos, gas, building materials, food services) climbed 0.5%, signaling resilience in consumer demand even as inflation bites.

Why it matters: Strong consumer outlays support growth forecasts for Q3 GDP, though real volume gains are muted by higher prices.

Assets in Focus: Equities

2. 📉 Weekly jobless claims fall to 221,000, undershooting forecasts

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Jobless claims dropped by 7,000 to 221,000 for the week ending July 12, below the 235,000 expected.

Auto plant maintenance and tariff-related uncertainty weighed on hiring, but overall claims remain near historic lows, signaling steady labor market health.

Why it matters: A firm jobs backdrop supports consumer spending and underpins Fed caution on rate cuts, especially amid policy risks.

Assets in Focus: Fixed Income

3. 💻 TSMC Q2 profit seen soaring to record levels

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Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. reported a net profit of NT$398.3 billion (US $13.5 billion) for Q2 2025, a 60.7% year-on-year surge that comfortably beat analysts’ NT$377.9 billion forecast.

AI-chip demand powered revenue growth, while a 12% YTD Taiwan-dollar strength and US tariffs modestly pressured margins, which nevertheless held near record levels.

Why it matters: As the world’s leading contract chipmaker, TSMC’s blow-out earnings underscore that AI remains the primary growth engine for global tech, setting the tone for semiconductor stocks and the broader market.

Assets in Focus: Equities

4. 🏛 US House poised to send stablecoin bill to Trump after ‘crypto week’ drama

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The US House of Representatives cleared debate rules for three crypto bills, including the stablecoin-focused GENIUS Act, after about nine hours of procedural wrangling that became the longest open vote in modern history, ending in a narrow 217–212 margin.

GOP leaders won over hardliners by inserting a ban on a Federal Reserve digital currency into the annual defense-spending bill. With debate rules now set, the stablecoin framework is on track to reach President Trump’s desk as soon as this Friday.

Why it matters: Securing debate marks a critical step toward America’s first comprehensive stablecoin regime, offering clarity to digital-asset markets even as deep Republican divisions threaten the final bills’ passage.

Assets in Focus: Alternatives

5. 🏠 Builders slash prices, offer ‘outrageous’ incentives amid weak demand

In July, US home-builder sentiment inched up one point to 33, the highest since early 2023, but confidence remains stubbornly low as 7% mortgage rates and economic uncertainty keep buyers sidelined.

To move inventory, 38% of builders cut list prices (the most since 2022) and 62% dangled incentives like mortgage-rate buydowns, closing-cost assistance, and builder-paid option credits.

Despite these “outrageous” deals, affordability challenges persist, and many builders warn that sales will stay sluggish without a meaningful drop in rates.

Why it matters: Steep incentives signal builders’ desperation, and if they become the norm, they could compress profit margins and delay new starts, weighing on related sectors like lumber and appliances.

Assets in Focus: Real Estate

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📊 Market Movements Snapshot

Asset Classes:

🟢 International Bonds: +1.38% YTD . Stabilizing yields in Europe and Japan, alongside modest currency gains versus a softer dollar, have underpinned returns in non-U.S. sovereign and high-grade debt.
🟢 Large Cap US Equities: +21.14 YTD. Strong second-quarter earnings and a surge in corporate buybacks, US firms plan to repurchase over $1 trillion this year, propped up valuations.

Sectors:

🟢 Materials: +8.98% YTD. Mixed Chinese commodity data, soft steel yet record iron-ore imports, and expectations of renewed infrastructure stimulus supported base-metal prices.
🟢 Utilities +8.73% YTD. A bond-like yield profile attracted defensive flows, while booming AI-data-center buildouts and grid-modernization spending underpinned power-demand forecasts.

July 16, 2025.

For the full list, click here

🤯 Alternative investment highlight: 🥃 Turning whiskey barrels into alternative assets

Platforms like CaskX now let investors buy un-aged whiskey casks, choose the mash bill and a three to five year maturation plan in professional rickhouses, while handling storage, insurance and eventual sale logistics.

The Whiskey Wash reports that on March 3, 2025, the old WOWGR regime was replaced by Warehousekeeper Regulations, treating whiskey casks like wine and removing onerous licensing hurdles for individual investors.

A Forbes Councils article explains how Modern fin-tech channels now let distilleries sell full barrels upfront to investors—boosting their cash flow and giving cask-holders the option to exit to non-distiller producers at maturity. Together, these changes unlock a tangible, low-correlation asset that’s historically returned 10–15% annually.‍

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🧠 From the Education Center: Is scarcity mindset killing your investment returns? ‍

Playing it safe can quietly cost more than any market crash. Holding too much cash out of fear may feel responsible, but it often means missing the upside.

Over time, missed growth can erode wealth more than short-term losses ever would.

Explore how scarcity thinking sabotages long-term returns: 🔗Learn more

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