July 23,2025

min read

💬 Daily Observation

“Know what you own, and know why you own it.” — Peter Lynch
It’s easy to accumulate positions on autopilot, yet true confidence comes from understanding the businesses or assets behind each line of your statement.

When you can explain to a friend why you own something, you’re less likely to panic at the first sign of volatility, and more likely to stay focused on the fundamentals that really drive long-term returns.

☕️ So grab your coffee and let’s dive into today’s fresh edition of Diversification Daily.

🗞️ Today's stories that matter (and why)

1. 🏠 Home prices surge to all-time high even as sales plunge

Median US home prices hit $435,300 in June, a new record, even as existing-home sales fell 2.7% to 3.93 million units, the lowest pace since September 2024.

Lawrence Yun of the National Association of Realtors attributes this disconnect to years of undersupply keeping prices aloft despite fewer buyers.

Why it matters: When prices rise even as turnover dries up, it suggests valuation pressures are driven more by financial factors than by traditional housing fundamentals, raising the stakes if borrowing costs or credit availability tighten further.

Assets in Focus: Real Estate ‍

2. ⚖️ EU to advance retaliation on US goods

The European Commission will formally propose counter-tariffs on €93 billion of American exports for approval by member states, stepping up pressure ahead of an August 1 deadline on US levies.

Why it matters: This escalates the transatlantic tariff standoff, risking higher prices on both sides and complicating supply-chain planning.

Assets in Focus: Equities, Commodities

3. 💸 US businesses are paying for Trump’s tariffs

Analyses by Citi and Deutsche Bank show that, as of mid-2025, most of President Trump’s tariffs have been absorbed by US companies, not pushed onto end consumers. Import prices from key trading partners have held firm, and consumer-facing price increases have been minimal.

Tariff revenues have now topped $100 billion, yet there’s scant evidence exporters or households are shouldering the brunt.

Why it matters: With firms eating most of the tariff costs, corporate profit margins, and ultimately equity valuations, face the greatest pressure. Absent significant pass-through, consumer spending and headline inflation may stay deceptively calm, masking underlying margin squeezes.

Assets in Focus: Equities

4. 🤝 US and Japan strike surprise trade deal

President Trump announced a pact reducing auto tariffs on Japanese imports to 15% in exchange for $550 billion of Japanese investment commitments in the US, averting 25% levies set for August 1

Why it matters: It relieves a key segment of US manufacturers and promises fresh capital flows, but leaves other sectors negotiating under looming tariff threats.

Assets in Focus: Equities

5. 📉 US June durable goods orders plummet 6.6% MoM

New orders for long-lasting manufactured goods fell 6.6% month-over-month in June, the sharpest drop since early 2020, driven by a 20.5% collapse in transportation equipment bookings.

Excluding the volatile transport sector, orders actually rose 0.5%.

Why it matters: A pullback in business investment signals companies are pausing major equipment spending amid policy uncertainty and elevated borrowing costs.

Assets in Focus: Fixed Income

Assets in Focus: Equities

🌀 Diversification Score – Have you evaluated your portfolio's diversification?

Are you spread across the right risk factors or leaning on just a few big bets?

🤯 Alternative investment highlight: 🎲 Fractional collectibles investing

Fractional investing platforms have turned pop-culture relics into stock-like assets: after acquiring rare VHS tapes or Golden Age comic books at auction, services such as Rally slice each item into equity shares, turning collectibles into “companies” you can buy into for as little as $10 per share and handling all storage and grading on your behalf.

Investors then trade those digital shares on in-app marketplaces with real-time price discovery, granting access to assets that once required six- or seven-figure outlays to own outright.

The craze reached a fever pitch when a PSA-9.5–graded 1952 Topps Mickey Mantle rookie card fetched $12.6 million at auction, yet platforms later issued fractional slices in that very card so retail collectors could co-own the “finest Mantle” without a multimillion-dollar ticket.

While this model injects much-needed liquidity and democratizes ownership, it also brings thinner secondary markets, grading disputes, and platform fees into play, making it the perfect cocktail of strange, shareable, and unforgettable for your next gathering.

📤

Share with a friend

Forward this email if Diversification Daily helps keep your investing compass steady.

🧠 From the Education Center: Is scarcity mindset killing your investment returns?

Playing it safe can quietly cost more than any market crash. Holding too much cash out of fear may feel responsible, but it often means missing the upside.

Over time, missed growth can erode wealth more than short-term losses ever would.

Explore how scarcity thinking sabotages long-term returns: 🔗Learn more

🚨Your $1,000 question— answered

What should you do with your next $1,000?

PortfolioPilot analyzes your full financial picture and tells you exactly where that money may work hardest. Whether it's optimizing taxes, rebalancing your risk, or investing idle cash—it delivers smart, personalized answers.

Put your money to work → PortfolioPilot.com

Feel free to reply to this email with any questions or feedback.

See you tomorrow,

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES: diversification.com is a technology product of Global Predictions Inc, a Registered Investment Advisor with the SEC. The information provided on diversification.com is for informational and educational purposes only. It should not be considered financial advice. Investment advisory services are only provided to investors who become Global Predictions clients. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Investing involves risk.

The content on this website, including market analysis, diversification scores, and other information, represents our observations of current market conditions and should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular investment or security.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss in a declining market.

The diversification score and related analysis are based on a proprietary methodology that evaluates various aspects of portfolio composition. They should not be the sole basis for making investment decisions.

DATA SOURCES: Market data, asset class information, sector analysis, and other financial information displayed on this website are sourced from StockNewsAPI, Morningstar, AlphaVantage, IEX, and TradingEconomics. We make every effort to ensure data accuracy but cannot guarantee that all information is complete, accurate, or timely.

USER COUNT DISCLOSURE: References to "30,000 users/subscribers" reflect the combined user base across Global Predictions, PortfolioPilot.com, and diversification.com platforms as of February 15, 2025.

REGULATORY INFORMATION: For Global Predictions' Form ADV Part 2A and other regulatory disclosures, please visit portfoliopilot.com/disclosures.

FIDUCIARY ADVICE: Fiduciary financial advice is available through PortfolioPilot.com. The tools and calculators on diversification.com are for educational purposes and do not constitute personalized investment advice.

Before making any investment decisions, you should consult with a qualified financial advisor, tax professional, or legal counsel to ensure that your investment strategy aligns with your individual needs and circumstances.

Global Predictions Inc. and its affiliates, officers, directors, employees, and agents do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the information provided on this website and shall not be liable for any losses, damages, or costs that may arise from its use.

*For compliance reasons, these stories are complete fiction with made up characters and portfolios. Possibly influenced by real interactions, and definitely not financial advice."