September 11, 2025

min read

💬 Daily Observation

“What makes a decision great is not that it has a great outcome. A great decision is the result of a good process.” — Annie Duke

A reader* told us she started a tiny “decision note” before any trade: one sentence on the goal, one on what she knows, one on what would change her mind. Last month she trimmed a position that kept rallying and, for once, didn’t beat herself up.

She said the relief came from trusting the process she wrote when she was calm, not the price that flashed after. Great portfolios aren’t built by guessing right more; they’re built by deciding well more.

☕ Let’s dive in today’s fresh edition of Diversification Daily.

🗞️ Today's stories that matter (and why)

1. 🏦 Shelter costs re-accelerate in CPI, but markets still see a Fed cut next week

August CPI rose 0.4% m/m and 2.9% y/y, with shelter up 0.4%—a reminder that housing (rents + owners’ equivalent rent) is still the sticky part of inflation.

Weekly jobless claims jumped to the highest since 2021, and markets still expect a 25 bps cut at the Sept. 17 Fed meeting despite the hotter print. Housing’s weight in CPI means real estate stays central to the macro narrative even as goods prices wobble.

Why it matters: For investors, “shelter” can keep headline inflation sticky even as other categories cool—supporting the case tostay balanced between rate-sensitive assets (REITs, longer-duration bonds) and equities until shelter finally eases in official data.

Assets in focus: Fixed Income, Real Estate

2. ✈️ Poland shoots down drones; NATO consults under Article 4

Poland became the first NATO member to fire shots in the Ukraine war after19 drones entered its airspace; one hit a home, no casualties reported. Warsaw activatedNATO Article 4 for consultations as leaders condemned the incursion; airports saw temporary closures.

Why it matters:The European Central Bank left its policy rate unchanged and offered few clues on timing of future moves, even as markets price more support with euro-area inflation seen dipping below target in 2026.

Assets in focus: Currencies

3. 💶 ECB holds rates, says it’s “in a good place”

The European Central Bank left its policy rate unchanged and offered few clues on timing of future moves, even as markets price more support with euro-area inflation seen dipping below target in 2026.

Why it matters: A steady ECB keeps relative-rates dynamics in focus. For US investors, policy divergence affects theUSD,European equities, andglobal bond hedging choices.

Assets in focus: Currencies

4. 🛢 Oil slips on oversupply and softer US demand

Brent −1.3% ($66.6) and WTI −1.4% ($62.8) as broad oversupply concerns outweighed Middle East and Russia/Ukraine risks; US demand indicators have softened.

Why it matters: Cheaper crude eases headline inflation and input costs, but pressuresenergy earnings and related capex—useful for sector tilts and commodity hedges.

Assets in focus: Commodities

5. 🛒 Kroger lifts sales outlook as shoppers trade down

Kroger raised full-year comparable-sales guidance to +2.7%–3.4% (from +2.25%–3.25%) and nudged EPS guidance higher on value-seeking demand; shares ticked up.

Why it matters: “Food-at-home” resilience underlines a defensive tilt: staples’ cash-flow stability can soften drawdowns when cyclicals wobble.

Assets in focus: Equities

🌀 Diversification Score – Have you evaluated your portfolio's diversification?

Are you spread across the right risk factors—or leaning on just a few big bets?

Calculate my score

🤯 Alternative investment highlight: 🤯 The $1.7M Dime

A tiny silver coin just fetched a bigger price than most houses. In early September, an 1894‑S Barber dime—one of only nine known to exist—sold for $1.7 million at auction. The dime’s value stems from its extreme rarity and the lore surrounding it: minted to balance the San Francisco Mint’s accounts in 1894, some say one was spent on ice cream by the superintendent’s daughter.

High‑profile coin sales like this often lift the broader numismatic market. It’s a reminder that real assets outside traditional markets—whether rare coins, vintage watches or classic cars—can capture investor imagination and sometimes yield outsized returns.

🧠 From the Education Center: Is crypto really an investment—or just speculation?

A look at whether digital assets have real fundamentals—or if they’re just digital gambling chips. 🔗Learn more

📤

Share with a friend

Forward this email if Diversification Daily keeps your investing compass steady.

🚨 Not a robo-advisor. Not a human.

PortfolioPilot isn’t a robo-advisor. It doesn’t take control of your money or push cookie-cutter strategies. And it isn’t a human advisor either—no hidden fees, no commissions, no pressure.

It’s your AI-powered co-pilot, scanning every part of your financial life and giving you personalized suggestions to optimize it.

You stay in control. PortfolioPilot makes you sharper.
Try it free → PortfolioPilot.com

Feel free to reply to this email with any questions or feedback.

See you tomorrow,

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES: diversification.com is a technology product of Global Predictions Inc, a Registered Investment Advisor with the SEC. The information provided on diversification.com is for informational and educational purposes only. It should not be considered financial advice. Investment advisory services are only provided to investors who become Global Predictions clients. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Investing involves risk.

The content on this website, including market analysis, diversification scores, and other information, represents our observations of current market conditions and should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular investment or security.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss in a declining market.

The diversification score and related analysis are based on a proprietary methodology that evaluates various aspects of portfolio composition. They should not be the sole basis for making investment decisions.

DATA SOURCES: Market data, asset class information, sector analysis, and other financial information displayed on this website are sourced from StockNewsAPI, Morningstar, AlphaVantage, IEX, and TradingEconomics. We make every effort to ensure data accuracy but cannot guarantee that all information is complete, accurate, or timely.

USER COUNT DISCLOSURE: References to "30,000 users/subscribers" reflect the combined user base across Global Predictions, PortfolioPilot.com, and diversification.com platforms as of February 15, 2025.

REGULATORY INFORMATION: For Global Predictions' Form ADV Part 2A and other regulatory disclosures, please visit portfoliopilot.com/disclosures.

FIDUCIARY ADVICE: Fiduciary financial advice is available through PortfolioPilot.com. The tools and calculators on diversification.com are for educational purposes and do not constitute personalized investment advice.

Before making any investment decisions, you should consult with a qualified financial advisor, tax professional, or legal counsel to ensure that your investment strategy aligns with your individual needs and circumstances.

Global Predictions Inc. and its affiliates, officers, directors, employees, and agents do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the information provided on this website and shall not be liable for any losses, damages, or costs that may arise from its use.

*For compliance reasons, these stories are complete fiction with made up characters and portfolios. Possibly influenced by real interactions, and definitely not financial advice."

‍