Sep 15, 2025

min read

💬 Daily Observation

“The most important part of every plan is planning on your plan not going according to plan.” — Morgan Housel

A friend of mine went all-in on one hot tech stock a decade ago. It worked, until it didn’t. When the company hit a rough patch, his net worth swung wildly and his nerves took a beating. He eventually rebuilt his portfolio with a mix of index funds, bonds, and even a few small, quirky holdings (art, farmland shares), and now sleeps better at night. His takeaway: you can’t predict which part of the plan will go off script, but you can spread your bets so no single surprise sinks you.

Building a “Plan B” isn’t just about cash reserves; it’s also about diversification, owning a range of assets that won’t all zig or zag at the same time. That way, when life or markets detour, your financial future keeps moving forward on schedule.

☕ Let’s dive in today’s fresh edition of Diversification Daily.

🗞️ Today's stories that matter (and why)

1. 🌏 US-China trade talks keep the relationship from collapsing

US and Chinese delegations met in Madrid for the fourth time in as many months to keep their trade relationship alive. Washington is pushing G7 partners to levy tariffs on nations that continue buying Russian oil.

The talks are expected to extend a truce on retaliatory tariffs and may prolong the deadline for ByteDance to sell TikTok’s US operationsreuters.com. Major concessions, including rare‑earth mineral exports and export‑control roll‑backs, were deferred for a possible Trump‑Xi summit later this year.

Why it matters: The world’s two largest economies are trying to avoid a trade breakdown. A prolonged truce helps dampen tariff risk and signals that both sides want stability ahead of US elections. But growing pressure on allies to punish Russia’s oil buyers hints at broader geopolitical tensions.

Assets in Focus: Currencies

2. 🛰 Brief Starlink outage highlights reliance on private satellites

SpaceX’s Starlink network suffered a brief outage that left more than 43,000 US customers without service; after roughly 30 minutes, the number of affected users fell below 1,000.

Ukraine’s drone forces commander said the blackout temporarily disrupted communications along the front lines but service resumed quickly.

Why it matters: Ukraine has over 50,000 Starlink terminals and relies on the network for battlefield communications. The episode underscores how dependent modern militaries and emergency services are on a single private network – and the risks investors take when national security hinges on corporate infrastructure.

Assets in Focus: Equities

3. 💻 CoreWeave secures a $6.3B demand backstop from Nvidia

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Cloud‑computing start‑up CoreWeave signed a deal ensuring that any computing capacity it fails to sell through 2032 will be purchased by chip‑maker Nvidia.

The arrangement means Nvidia will spend up to $6.3 billion to absorb unsold capacity from CoreWeave’s AI‑focused data‑centres.

Why it matters: The agreement guarantees revenue for CoreWeave while locking in demand for Nvidia’s hardware. It also signals how important specialised data‑centres have become in the AI arms race. Such backstop deals can make smaller firms more bankable and highlight how dominant players like Nvidia use their balance sheets to secure market share.

Assets in Focus: Equities

4. 🏠 Mortgage rates see biggest weekly drop in a year;

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The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell 15 bps to ~6.35%, the largest weekly decline in a year, putting rates near an 11-month low.

Lower Treasury yields and rising odds of a Fed cut helped pull borrowing costs down. Lenders are already seeing more activity, with purchase demand improving alongside refis.

Why it matters: Cheaper mortgages nudge affordability in the right direction and can unfreeze “rate-locked” owners. If rates hold near here, we could see modestly higher transaction volume this fall—good for housing turnover, home-improvement spend, and related equities. If the Fed surprises hawkishly, this could reverse.

Assets in Focus: Equities

5. 🛢 HSBC warns of oil glut risk into 2026

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HSBC projects that oil markets will swing into a surplus of 1.7 million barrels per day in Q4 2025 and 2.4 mbd in 2026 because OPEC+ plans to raise output by 137,000 b/d in October.

The bank expects Brent crude prices to average $65 per barrel in 2026 but warns that inventories could swell if Western stock‑piles rise.

Why it matters: A supply‑led surplus could cap oil prices and reduce energy‑sector profits. The forecast suggests that the rally in crude oil may be nearing a plateau, which has implications for inflation and the earnings outlook of energy majors. Long‑term investors should consider whether commodity exposure still provides the desired inflation hedge.

Assets in Focus: Alternatives

🌀 Diversification Score – Have you evaluated your portfolio's diversification?

Are you spread across the right risk factors—or leaning on just a few big bets?

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📊 Market Movements Snapshot

Asset Classes:

🟢 Large Cap US Equities (S&P 500): +11.12% YTD . The S&P 500 broke through 5,300 as mega-cap tech and consumer staples beat Q3 earnings expectations, while fading inflation and rising rate-cut hopes kept investor optimism high.
🟢 International Bonds: +2.40% YTD. European and Japanese bonds continue to rally as global investors price in rising odds of rate cuts abroad; a softer dollar added currency tailwinds for unhedged positions.

For the full list, click here

Sectors:

🟢 Information Technology: +15.50% YTD. The sector surged on continued AI momentum—NVIDIA and AMD each raised full-year guidance amid booming demand for AI chips and enterprise cloud services.
🟢 Materials: +13.56% YTD. Strong infrastructure spending and energy-transition investments continued to fuel demand for base and industrial metals, driving sector gains.

For the full list, click here

🤯 Alternative investment highlight: 🎨 Art as a Slice, Not a Strategy

‍A single ‘Pappy 25’ is hitting the block. A 25-year-old Old Rip Van Winkle, the oldest Van Winkle ever, is being auctioned this month.

One bottle (kept untouched at Buffalo Trace for years) is up now through Sept 24; another goes live in Boston Sept 18–30 with an estimate of $24k–$32k. Ultra-scarce bottle, big story, real dollars.

In collectibles, story + scarcity do the heavy lifting. No cash flows—just provenance and demand. It’s a reminder that “alternatives” can be as tangible as a bottle in a wooden case.

🧠 From the Education Center:Is private credit hiding more risk than it shows?

High yields and low daily volatility don’t always tell the full story in private credit markets.🔗Learn more

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