Sep 25, 2025

min read

💬 Daily Observation

“The key to dealing with the future lies in knowing where you are.” — Howard Marks

A reader, Jordan*, is a long-term investor. Once a month he opens a single page he made for himself and just…looks at it. It shows what actually drives his portfolio, which dollars are already spoken for, and what his “quiet” cash is earning.

Most months, nothing surprising happens; he closes the laptop and moves on. He jokes it feels like checking a map before a long drive, not to pick a shortcut, just to confirm he’s still on the right road.

☕ Let’s dive in today’s fresh edition of Diversification Daily.

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🗞️ Today's stories that matter (and why)

1. 🏛️ Shutdown risk rises as agencies prep contingency plans

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The White House told federal agencies to prepare deeper workforce cuts if funding lapses on Oct. 1, beyond the usual temporary furloughs, raising the risk of data delays and regulatory slowdowns if Congress can’t agree on a deal.

Why it matters: If jobs/inflation reports go dark, the Fed flies with fewer instruments, often a recipe for volatility.

Assets in Focus: Equities

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2. 📉 Jobless claims dip; futures a touch softer

New unemployment claims fell to 218,000 for the week ending Sept. 20 (down from 232,000), signaling layoffs are still contained even as hiring cools. Stocks opened softer while traders look to Friday’s PCE inflation for the next cue.

Why it matters: Claims are the early warning light for the labor market. Fewer layoffs support spending, but slower hiring still argues for easier policy,key for bond yields, the dollar, and growth stocks.

Assets in Focus: Currencies

3. ₿ Crypto slump deepens ahead of PCE

Bitcoin and majors are lower as investors point to leverage washouts and Friday’s inflation data as the next catalyst.

From ~$116,000 last week to about $111,700 today, BTC is ~10% below its August peak above $123,000.

Why it matters: Crypto often trades like high-beta risk. If real yields pop on a hot PCE print, the most liquidity-sensitive corners usually get hit first,an early read on broader risk appetite.

Assets in Focus: Alternatives

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4. 🏠 New-home sales surge in August; existing sales still soft

‍New single-family home sales jumped 20.5% month-over-month, from a ~652,000 July pace to 800,000 in August (SAAR), the highest since early 2022, helped by builder discounts and rate buydowns.

Meanwhile, existing-home sales slipped 0.2% to 4.00 million,still constrained by affordability.

Why it matters: Cooling growth plus sticky costs keeps the “soft-landing” path narrow and the Fed cautious, supportive for longer duration, but mixed for cyclicals.

Assets in Focus: Real Estate

5. 📊 Stocks +13% YTD,but risks loom large

‍The S&P 500 is +13% in 2025 with 25 record highs in three months, fueled by AI optimism and rate-cut hopes. Risks: sticky inflation, tariffs, and rich valuations.

Why it matters: Big winners tempt concentration. That’s when rebalancing and diversification do their best work.

Assets in Focus: Equities

🌀 Diversification Score -  Have you evaluated your portfolio's diversification?

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🤯 Alternative investment highlight: Tony Hawk’s “900” skateboard sold for $1.15M.

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The exact Birdhouse “Falcon 2” deck Hawk rode to land the first-ever 900 at the 1999 X Games went under the hammer at Julien’s Auctions in Hollywood on Sept. 23, with proceeds supporting The Skatepark Project. Pre-sale guidance was $500k–$700k; the final price hit $1.15M and set a record for skate memorabilia.

Hawk’s helmet, sneakers, and knee pads from the moment also sold, and the auction mixed nearly 100 pieces from his career. It’s a perfect reminder that collectibles rise on story and scarcity, but they’re emotional buys and hard to unload quickly.

🧠 From the Education Center: 10 Best Finance Podcasts for 2025

Insight: Listeners downloaded behavioral finance podcasts more than 100 million times in 2024, demonstrating growing appetite for the psychology of money. 🔗Learn more

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*For compliance reasons, these stories are complete fiction with made up characters and portfolios. Possibly influenced by real interactions, and definitely not financial advice."

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