December 15, 2025

Dec 15, 2025

“The biggest investing errors come not from factors that are informational, but from those that are psychological.” — Morgan Housel

A reflection I’ve seen work: separate research from action. When a headline sparks the urge to “fix” your portfolio, don’t rush to trade — open a note and answer three questions: What am I afraid will happen? What would have to be true for this change to be necessary? And what part of my plan does this actually affect?

Once it’s a sentence, it’s easier to see whether it’s a real risk… or just a loud moment.

1. 📊 This week’s US data calendar is dense, and it could reset the “rates story”

After the shutdown scrambled the normal flow of indicators, the market finally gets a cluster of big US releases: Employment Situation (Nov) Tue Dec 16, Advance Retail Sales Wed Dec 17, and CPI (Nov) Thu Dec 18. When several “macro inputs” hit back-to-back, bond yields and rate-sensitive stocks often react more to the pattern than any single print.

Why it matters: This is the kind of setup that can change expectations for Fed cuts, which flows directly into mortgage rates, bond prices, and stock valuations.

Assets in Focus: Fixed Income

2. 🏦 The next Fed chair is starting to feel like a market input

Reuters notes President Trump has narrowed his Fed chair choice to Kevin Warsh or Kevin Hassett, and markets are watching what that might imply for the pace of rate cuts. A separate Breakingviews column argues Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent could have outsized influence over monetary policy direction, raising fresh questions about how “independent” policy will feel.

Why it matters: If investors doubt central bank independence, long-term rates can get jumpier, and that volatility shows up in mortgages, credit, and stock multiples.

Assets in Focus: Fixed Income

3. 🤖 Citi’s 2026 S&P 500 call: 7,700, with a warning about “who wins” in AI

Citi set a 2026 year-end S&P 500 target of 7,700, pointing to earnings resilience and continued AI investment. The nuance: Citi expects leadership could rotate from the companies building AI infrastructure to the ones adopting it. High valuations are a headwind, so the path may be bumpier.

Why it matters: The “AI trade” may be getting more selective — diversification helps when the market stops rewarding one narrow lane.

Assets in Focus: Equities, Fixed Income

4. 🧧 Tariffs are showing up in holiday shopping, unevenly

An AP report highlights how US tariffs are affecting holiday pricing and buying behavior in a lopsided way, with some categories more exposed due to import dependence. The story isn’t “everything is expensive” — it’s that tariffs can quietly reshape supply chains, product mix, and margins for specific retailers and brands.

Why it matters: Tariffs can act like a targeted tax, creating winners and losers inside US equities, and complicating the inflation picture the Fed is trying to read.

Assets in Focus: Equities

5. 🇨🇳 China’s economy stalled in November, and that still matters to US portfolios

China’s November data softened: industrial output +4.8% YoY (weakest pace since Aug 2024) and retail sales +1.3% YoY (weakest since Dec 2022). The mix matters: weaker consumers + lingering property stress can reduce demand for everything from US multinationals’ products to global industrial inputs.

Why it matters: Even if you never invest in China directly, it can still show up in your returns through earnings, commodities demand, and global growth expectations.

Assets in Focus: Equities

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🤯 Alternative Investment Highlight: 🎩 JPMorgan put “cash parking” on Ethereum

JPMorgan launched a tokenized money-market fund on Ethereum (MONY), seeded with $100 million. Instead of holding fund shares on a traditional ledger, investors get blockchain tokens representing ownership, aimed at smoother, faster settlement and “on-chain cash” utility (still largely for institutions and qualified investors right now).

🧠 From the Education Center: The ‘Risk-Free’ Rate is a Dangerous Illusion

Inflation, currency volatility, reinvestment risk, and opportunity cost can quietly chip away at the true return you’re getting. And for long-term investors, those risks can add up in surprising, and sometimes damaging, ways.

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