February 24, 2026

Feb 24, 2026

💬 Daily Observation

"The key to dealing with the future lies in knowing where you are, even if you can't know precisely where you're going." — Howard Marks

Most of the stress comes from trying to predict, when what actually helps is positioning: knowing your risk level, your time horizon, and what you'll do if markets drop (or rip higher). A calm portfolio isn't one that guesses right. It's one that doesn't require perfect guesses to work.

🗞️ Today's Stories That Matter (And Why)

1. 🧾 Trump's new 10% global tariff takes effect (with 15% still being floated)

A new 10% tariff on imports from all countries went live today, with ongoing questions around exemptions and whether the rate could move toward 15%. Markets are reacting to uncertainty, not just the headline number.

Why it matters: Tariffs add friction — higher costs, messier supply chains, and a wider range of outcomes for corporate profits.

Assets in Focus: Equities

2. 🧠 US consumer confidence ticked up, but the "future" gauge is still flashing caution

The Conference Board said US consumer confidence rose to 91.2 in February from 89.0 in January. The Expectations Index climbed to 72.0 but stayed below 80 — the level that often signals elevated recession risk.

Why it matters: Consumer mood influences spending, which influences earnings, which influences stocks.

Assets in Focus: Equities

3. 🏠 Home Depot beat estimates, but the "big projects" slowdown still shows

Home Depot reported Q4 results ahead of expectations, but noted customers are leaning toward smaller projects while the housing market remains sluggish. 2026 guidance points to flat-to-+4% earnings growth — stabilization, not a boom.

Why it matters: Home improvement is a sneakily good read on household confidence, especially when rates are high and moving homes feels expensive.

Assets in Focus: Equities, Fixed Income

4. ₿ Bitcoin ETFs are bleeding billions (a demand pillar is reversing)

US spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen roughly $2.6B in net outflows so far this year. That removes a steady source of demand, especially during risk-off periods.

Why it matters: When flows flip negative, crypto often trades less like "digital gold" and more like a high-volatility liquidity trade.

Assets in Focus: Alternatives

5. 🧠 Meta signs a multibillion-dollar AI chip deal with AMD

Meta struck a major agreement for up to 6 gigawatts of AMD AI chips, with AMD granting Meta performance-based warrants that could translate into roughly a 10% stake if milestones hit.

Why it matters: Big AI ambitions now live or die on access to compute. This also shows how competition with Nvidia is forcing creative deal structures.

Assets in Focus: Equities

🌀 Diversification Score

Are you spread across the right risk factors — or leaning on just a few big bets? Calculate my score

🤯 Alternative Investment Highlight: 🏈 Your Pension Might Own a Slice of the NFL

Kentucky's County Employees Retirement System invested $100 million with Arctos Partners, which has sports stakes tied to teams like the Buffalo Bills and Los Angeles Chargers. The NFL now allows approved private-equity funds to buy up to 10% of a franchise.

🧠 From the Education Center

Diversification: A Practical Guide — History has repeatedly demonstrated its value, from the Great Depression to the 2008 financial crisis.

🚨 Your $10,000 question, answered

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