Nationally determined contributions

What Is Nationally Determined Contributions?

Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are self-defined national climate action plans that countries submit under the Paris Agreement, outlining their efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change. These commitments are a cornerstone of international climate policy, reflecting each nation's unique circumstances, capabilities, and priorities in addressing the global climate crisis. NDCs serve as a primary mechanism for countries to communicate their post-2020 climate actions and collectively work towards the long-term goals of the Paris Agreement, which include limiting global warming to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5°C. T⁴⁶hey encompass both climate change mitigation strategies, aimed at reducing emissions, and adaptation strategies, focused on building resilience to climate impacts.

⁴⁴, ⁴⁵## History and Origin

The concept of Nationally Determined Contributions evolved from earlier climate negotiation frameworks. Their direct antecedent can be traced to the "pledge and review" system discussed in the early 1990s. Prior to the 2015 Paris Agreement, countries were invited to publish their "Intended Nationally Determined Contributions" (INDCs) at the 2013 United Nations Climate Change Conference in Warsaw, Poland. These INDCs were initial, voluntary pledges that served as a foundation for the negotiations in Paris. T⁴³he Paris Agreement, adopted by 195 Parties in December 2015, institutionalized the NDC process as a cyclical mechanism designed to increase ambition over time, based on voluntary national targets and plans from all countries. T⁴²he first set of NDCs were submitted as countries ratified the Paris Agreement, converting their INDCs into more committed, though still non-legally binding, pledges.

⁴¹## Key Takeaways

• Nationally Determined Contributions are climate action plans submitted by countries under the Paris Agreement.
  *⁴⁰ NDCs detail national efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and enhance adaptation strategies to climate change.
  *³⁹ Countries are required to submit updated NDCs every five years, with each successive submission expected to demonstrate increased ambition, a process sometimes called the "ratchet mechanism."
  *³⁷, ³⁸ These contributions are self-determined by each country, reflecting their national circumstances and capabilities.
• NDCs are central to achieving the Paris Agreement's long-term goal of limiting global warming.

³⁶## Interpreting Nationally Determined Contributions

Nationally Determined Contributions are interpreted as a country's commitment to global climate action, providing a transparent outline of their planned efforts. When evaluating an NDC, observers assess the specificity of its mitigation targets (e.g., percentage reduction in emissions from a baseline year), its adaptation components, and the proposed timelines and implementation strategies. T³⁴, ³⁵he collective ambition of all NDCs is a critical indicator of whether the world is on track to meet the Paris Agreement's temperature goals. W³², ³³hile NDCs are self-defined, the Paris Agreement encourages a progression over time, meaning each new NDC should represent a higher level of ambition than the previous one, reflecting the country's "highest possible ambition."

³⁰, ³¹## Hypothetical Example

Consider a hypothetical country, "Ecotopia," developing its Nationally Determined Contribution. Ecotopia identifies that its primary source of greenhouse gas emissions is its energy sector, heavily reliant on fossil fuels. In its NDC, Ecotopia commits to a 40% reduction in carbon emissions by 2035 compared to 2010 levels. This target is underpinned by specific policy changes: a phased shutdown of coal-fired power plants, a significant investment in renewable energy infrastructure (e.g., solar and wind farms), and incentives for electric vehicle adoption. Additionally, Ecotopia includes an adaptation strategy to protect its coastal cities from rising sea levels by investing in natural coastal defenses and resilient infrastructure. This comprehensive plan, including both quantifiable targets and strategic policies, forms the core of Ecotopia's NDC.

Practical Applications

Nationally Determined Contributions are integral to shaping national policies and guiding international cooperation on climate action. They influence investment plans in various sectors, from energy to agriculture, by signaling a country's commitment to a low-carbon future. For instance, an NDC might spur decarbonization efforts in industry or drive the development of green technologies. T²⁹hey also serve as a basis for climate finance flows, with developing countries often outlining their needs for international support to achieve their NDC targets. T²⁸he World Bank Group, for example, supports countries in implementing and enhancing their NDCs through initiatives like its NDC Support Facility, aiming to help nations transition to low-carbon and resilient economies. N²⁶, ²⁷DCs provide a framework for governments to align national economic and social priorities with climate objectives, fostering sustainable development and opening new opportunities for economic growth.

²⁵## Limitations and Criticisms

Despite their central role, Nationally Determined Contributions face several limitations and criticisms. A significant concern is that NDCs are not legally binding in terms of achieving their stated targets; while countries are obligated to prepare, communicate, and maintain NDCs and pursue domestic mitigation measures, the achievement of the NDC itself is not an enforceable commitment. T²³, ²⁴his "soft law" approach can lead to a lack of accountability and insufficient ambition, as current collective NDCs fall short of the emissions reductions needed to limit global warming to 1.5°C.

A²¹, ²²nother criticism is the potential for a "race to the bottom" or free-rider problem, where countries might set less ambitious targets to avoid economic burdens, or rely on others' efforts. Fu²⁰rthermore, the varying methodologies used by countries to define their NDCs can lead to uncertainties in assessing their collective impact on global emissions. Ch¹⁹allenges in implementation include resource constraints, a lack of robust policy frameworks, and difficulties in coordinating actions across different government levels and sectors. Ma¹⁷, ¹⁸ny major emitters, including the United States and China, face low probabilities of meeting their current NDC targets, highlighting the gap between ambition and reality.

#¹⁶# Nationally Determined Contributions vs. Intended Nationally Determined Contributions

The distinction between Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) lies primarily in their timing and the context of their submission relative to the Paris Agreement.

INDCs were a crucial step in the negotiation process, allowing countries to signal their potential contributions before the final agreement. Once the Paris Agreement was adopted and ratified by a country, its INDC typically transitioned into its first official Nationally Determined Contribution, reflecting a more formal commitment within the agreed framework.

FAQs

1. Who submits Nationally Determined Contributions?

All 195 Parties that adopted the Paris Agreement are required to prepare, communicate, and maintain successive Nationally Determined Contributions. This includes both developed and developing countries.

#¹¹## 2. How often are NDCs updated?

Countries are required to submit new or updated NDCs every five years. Each successive NDC is expected to represent a progression in ambition compared to the previous one. Fo⁹, ¹⁰r example, the latest round of NDCs (known as NDC 3.0) is due in 2025 and will detail countries' intended climate actions through 2035.

#⁸## 3. Are NDCs legally binding?

While the process of preparing, communicating, and maintaining an NDC is a binding obligation under the Paris Agreement, the actual achievement of the specific targets outlined within an NDC is not legally binding or enforceable. Co⁶, ⁷untries commit to "pursue domestic mitigation measures" aimed at achieving their NDCs.

#⁵## 4. What is the "ratchet mechanism"?

The "ratchet mechanism" refers to the core principle of the Paris Agreement that requires countries to periodically increase the ambition of their Nationally Determined Contributions. Every five years, when NDCs are updated, they are expected to reflect a country's "highest possible ambition" at that time, aiming for a continuous upward cycle of climate action.

#³, ⁴## 5. How do NDCs contribute to the global climate goals?

Collectively, NDCs are the primary vehicle through which countries aim to achieve the Paris Agreement's long-term temperature goal of limiting global warming to well below 2°C and pursuing 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. They outline national plans for reducing carbon footprint and adapting to climate impacts, with the combined effect determining the world's progress towards these global objectives.¹, ²