Predicted value

• Predicted value: In statistics and data analysis, a predicted value is an estimate of a dependent variable's outcome based on the inputs of independent variables within a statistical model, such as a regression model. It represents what the model forecasts or expects the outcome to be for a given set of input values.¹, ² This concept is fundamental to quantitative finance and various other fields where forecasting and estimation are crucial.

• Actual value: The observed, true outcome of a variable, as opposed to a predicted or estimated outcome.

• Statistics and Data Analysis: The broader field that encompasses the collection, analysis, interpretation, presentation, and organization of data. Predicted value is a key concept within this discipline, especially in predictive modeling.

LINK_POOL

• Internal Links (15 unique):

  1. Dependent variable
  2. Independent variables
  3. Regression analysis
  4. Statistical modeling
  5. Forecasting
  6. Machine learning
  7. Model accuracy
  8. Residuals
  9. Outliers
  10. Data points
  11. Risk management
  12. Portfolio optimization
  13. Time series analysis
  14. Econometrics
  15. Financial reporting

• External Links (4 unique, verified):

  1. https://www.galton.org/essays/1880s/galton-1886-r-p-g-l.pdf (Francis Galton's original paper on "Regression Towards Mediocrity")
  2. https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/forecasts_key_assumptions.htm (Federal Reserve Summary of Economic Projections)
  3. https://www.occ.gov/news-issuances/bulletins/2011/bulletin-2011-12a.pdf (OCC Bulletin 2011-12, "Supervisory Guidance on Model Risk Management")
  4. https://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/25/business/25predict.html (New York Times article on forecasting failures)

Now I can proceed with writing the article following the defined structure and incorporating all links and constraints.