Sep 03, 2025

Sep 03, 2025
💬 Daily Observation
“Don’t just do something, stand there.” — John C. Bogle
Most of investing is deciding what you won’t do. Pilots brief a “no-go” list before takeoff. Investors can, too: no chasing a stock because it trended on social, no selling just because a headline spiked your heart rate, no tinkering between scheduled rebalances.
“Standing there” isn’t laziness, it’s discipline. You already did the hard work when you set your allocation and automation. Let that plan absorb the day’s noise. If something truly changes (job, goals, big drift), you’ll act, on your terms.
☕️ So let’s dive into today’s fresh edition of Diversification Daily.

🗞️ Today’s stories that matter (and why)

1. 📈 Long yields flirt with 5%—and gold pops to fresh records

The US long bond (30-year) tested ~5%, while spot gold pushed above ~$3,530/oz to record highs amid safe-haven flows and rate-cut bets.
Why it matters: Higher long rates pressure mortgages, capex, and equity valuations; gold strength is a stress barometer.
Assets in Focus: Fixed Income; Commodities (Gold)

2. ⚖️ Judge spares a Google breakup; Apple tie-up intact (for now)

US District Judge Amit Mehta declined a structural breakup—no forced sale of Chrome or Android—and will let Google keep paying Apple for default search placement, while ordering data-sharing with rivals and barring exclusive contracts. Alphabet +7.2% after hours; Apple ~+3% as investors priced in a lighter remedy and reduced uncertainty. DOJ is weighing next steps, and appeals could push the fight toward the Supreme Court.
Why it matters: Reduced legal overhang supports megacap tech multiples, though future appeals and remedies still matter.
Assets in Focus: Equities (Tech; Megacap)

3.🏚️ Homebuyer cancellations hit record July high

>15% of US home-purchase agreements fell through in July—the highest July share since Redfin began tracking—amid stretched affordability and more choices for buyers. Builders’ incentives are propping up some new-home deals; resale sellers are cutting price or adding concessions.
Why it matters: More busted deals can pressure comps/appraisals, lengthen days-on-market, and cool construction pipelines—impacting REITs, homebuilders, and mortgage credit.
Assets in Focus: Real Estate; Homebuilders; Mortgage Credit

4. 🌐 Tariffs: Appeals ruling deepens uncertainty; Supreme Court appeal next

A federal appeals court ruled most of President Trump’s tariffs unlawful but left them in place until Oct. 14; the administration says it will seek a fast-track Supreme Court review.
Why it matters: Tariff direction affects inflation, margins, supply chains, and FX; policy clarity (or lack of it) can swing sectors from retail to semis.
Assets in Focus: Equities; FX; Semiconductors; Retail

5. 🏭 ISM: US manufacturing still contracting—AI capex a bright spot

ISM Manufacturing PMI: 48.7 in August, sixth straight month below 50, with soft production/jobs but some support from AI-related investment. PMI below 50 = contraction.
Why it matters: Sluggish factories point to earnings sensitivity for industrials; services and AI-driven spend are doing more of the heavy lifting.
Assets in Focus: Equities; Industrials; Tech (AI Capex)

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🤯 Alternative investment highlight: 💵🔗 Treasuries, tokenized

The safest corner of finance is quietly going on-chain. Asset managers now issue tokenized T-bill funds—claims recorded on a blockchain instead of a transfer agent’s ledger—so “cash-like” assets can move 24/7 and plug into software. The broader real-world asset (RWA) tokenization market sits around $24B this year, with marquee examples like BlackRock’s BUIDL surpassing $1B AUM, and Franklin Templeton launching a tokenized UCITS money fund in Luxembourg.
Here’s the quirky part: stablecoin issuers (the firms behind dollar-pegged crypto) already park large chunks of their reserves in short-term Treasuries, effectively becoming a new, software-native buyer of US debt. Fresh reporting and research suggest regulation is nudging reserves toward cash/T-bills, and that stablecoin demand can even trim T-bill yields by a couple of basis points—small, but real in money-markets.
None of this is an endorsement—smart-contract, custody, and policy risks are still evolving, and the market’s plumbing matters as much as the tech. But it’s undeniably odd (and kind of cool) to watch “cash” turn programmable, with a growing slice of Treasury demand now routed through code.

🧠 From the Education Center: How much of the wealth divide comes down to tax policy?
Examining the real drivers of inequality—tax law, asset ownership, and structural forces.
🔗 Learn more

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See you tomorrow,
Fernanda de Francesco
Editor, Diversification.com

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