Sep 04, 2025

💬 Daily Observation
“Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate them, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” — Peter Lynch
Pilots don’t burn fuel weaving around every cloud on the radar, they fly the plan, keep altitude, and adjust only when conditions actually change. Investors face the same: the idea of the next correction can feel more urgent than the reality of our goals, timeline, and mix. The hidden costs of constant “preparing” are missed compounding, whipsaw trades, and attention pulled from the few habits that matter.
A useful filter for September: if your goal, time horizon, and risk tolerance haven’t changed, the portfolio probably doesn’t need a brand-new maneuver today. Save the energy for the checklists that stand up in any weather: steady contributions, periodic reviews, and a mix that doesn’t rely on a single outcome.
☕ So grab your coffee, and let’s dive into today’s fresh edition of Diversification Daily.

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🗞️ Today’s stories that matter (and why)

1. 🧑‍💼 ADP: Private hiring slows to 54k; September cut odds stay high

US private employers added 54,000 jobs in August, well below expectations and down from July’s 106,000, per ADP.
The weak print reinforces a cooling-labor narrative ahead of Friday’s payrolls and keeps markets leaning toward a September rate cut.
Why it matters: Softer hiring supports easier policy—helpful for duration—but also hints at slower earnings momentum.
Assets in Focus: Fixed Income

2. 🪙 Gold tagged another record, then eased

Spot gold set a fresh all-time high near $3,578/oz on Wednesday, then slipped ~0.4% to $3,544/oz by late morning ET Thursday as traders took profits.
The backdrop remains rate-cut bets and worries over central-bank independence (political pressure on rate-setters). Separately, Goldman Sachs says a push toward $4,000 is plausible if private investor demand accelerates.
Why it matters: When people get nervous about the economy or politics, they often buy gold. It can help steady investments when other assets feel shaky.
Assets in Focus: Equities; Commodities (Gold)

3. 📉 Jobless claims rise to highest since June

Initial claims increased 8,000 to 237,000 (week ended Aug. 30), above forecasts; continuing claims edged to ~1.94M (week ended Aug. 23).
Weekly data can be noisy, but the direction aligns with cooling seen in other indicators.
Why it matters: A slower labor market supports rate-cut probability (bullish for duration) but can cap earnings optimism.
Assets in Focus: Fixed Income

4. 🏠 Policy watch: White House levers to trim mortgage costs (no new law required)

A MarketWatch explainer walks through options—tweaking Fannie/Freddie fees or lifting certain GSE caps—that could narrow mortgage spreads even without congressional action.
Nothing’s done, but these ideas are resurfacing as affordability bites.
Why it matters: Even small fee/spread moves ripple through monthly payments, influencing Real Estate activity, MBS, and housing-adjacent equities.
Assets in Focus: Real Estate; Mortgage Credit; MBS

5. 📊 The S&P 500’s quiet risk: concentration keeps climbing

Nvidia now commands ~8% of the S&P 500, with mega-caps driving a large share of index gains—great when leaders rise, uncomfortable when they wobble.
Why it matters: When a few giant stocks drive most returns, index results hinge on those names; if they stumble, the whole index can wobble.
Assets in Focus: Equities (Megacap; Index)

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🌀 Diversification Score – Have you evaluated your portfolio’s diversification?
Are you spread across the right risk factors—or leaning on just a few big bets?
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📊 Market Movements Snapshot
Asset Classes:

• 🟢 Large Cap US Equities (S&P 500): +8.74% YTD. Q2 earnings from mega‑caps—especially tech and consumer staples—exceeded forecasts, while ongoing share‑buyback announcements and investor optimism over future rate cuts kept valuations supported.
• 🟢 Gold: +25.73% YTD. Gold continues its historic rally, driven by increased safe-haven demand amid geopolitical and policy uncertainty. Investor positioning remains strong due to expectations of Fed easing, a weakening U.S. dollar, and robust central-bank accumulation.

For the full list, click here

Sectors:

• 🟢 Information Technology:  +8.71% YTD. Yield-rich, defensive utilities drew buyers anticipating future rate cuts and reliable cash flows. The sector outperformed amid broader market swings.
• 🟢 Materials: +12.66% YTD. Infrastructure, defense, and energy-transition demand—especially for metals like copper and lithium—continue to underpin gains in materials. Additionally, supply constraints are creating pricing support across the commodities complex.
  

For the full list, click here

🤯 Alternative investment highlight: 🍏 Tech relics, real moneyApple nostalgia is cash.

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At an Aug. 21 RR Auction sale, a $47.50 check Steve Jobs wrote in 1976 sold for $87,940, and a factory-sealed first-gen 4GB iPhone went for $81,989—plus smaller lots like Jobs’s “iCEO” business cards ($16,643) and a sealed iPod ($40,264). No ROI pitch—just proof that culture + provenance can turn everyday tech history into five-figure trophies.Why did bidders pay up? Story + scarcity. The check is No. 6, written March 28, 1976—just four days before Apple’s founding—and it lists Jobs, Wozniak, and Wayne on the back. The 4GB iPhone was discontinued a couple of months after launch, so sealed units are the “holy grail.” Add clean provenance and condition, and even business cards and a sealed iPod can clear five figures. (Auction prices include buyer’s premiums and can swing from sale to sale.)

🧠 From the Education Center: Should younger investors avoid bonds entirely?Some argue that bonds have no place in a young investor's portfolio. But does skipping them entirely make sense?🔗 Learn more

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