What Are Gleichlaufende Indikatoren?
Gleichlaufende Indikatoren, also known as coincident indicators, are economic measures that reflect the current state of the economy, moving simultaneously with the overall Konjunkturzyklus. These indicators are crucial in Makroökonomie for providing real-time insights into economic activity. Unlike indicators that forecast future trends or confirm past ones, gleichlaufende Indikatoren offer a snapshot of economic conditions as they unfold. Key examples often include metrics like industrial production, employment levels, and personal income, all of which tend to shift in tandem with broad economic expansions or contractions.
History and Origin
The systematic study and classification of economic indicators, including what would become known as coincident indicators, gained prominence following the Great Depression. Economists Arthur Burns and Wesley Mitchell at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) pioneered much of this work in the 1930s and 1940s, meticulously analyzing vast amounts of economic data to identify patterns in business cycles. Their research laid the groundwork for the modern indicator approach, aiming to better understand and forecast economic downturns. Later, Geoffrey Moore, also associated with the NBER, further developed the concept of leading, lagging, and coincident business-cycle indicators, refining their use as tools for economic analysis. By December 1995, The Conference Board became the official source for the widely-publicized composite indexes of leading, lagging, and coincident indicators, taking over from the U.S. Department of Commerce. 10The Conference Board, a non-governmental organization, continues to publish these indicators as a key tool for assessing economic health and identifying business cycle turning points.
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Key Takeaways
- Gleichlaufende Indikatoren reflect the current state of economic activity, moving concurrently with the Konjunkturzyklus.
- They provide real-time information, helping economists and policymakers understand the economy's present health.
- Common examples include nonfarm payroll employment, Industrieproduktion, and Persönliches Einkommen.
- While they don't predict future trends, gleichlaufende Indikatoren are essential for confirming the timing of economic peaks and troughs.
Interpreting Gleichlaufende Indikatoren
Interpreting gleichlaufende Indikatoren involves observing their direction and magnitude of change to assess the current phase of the Wirtschaftswachstum. For instance, a consistent rise in a composite index of coincident indicators suggests an ongoing economic Expansion, while a sustained decline signals a potential Rezession.
These indicators, often presented as indexes (e.g., The Conference Board's Coincident Economic Index or the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Coincident Economic Activity Index), are typically composed of several individual economic series. When the index moves upward, it indicates that the underlying economic activity is generally increasing. Conversely, a downward movement suggests a contraction. Analysts often look for broad-based movements across multiple coincident indicators to confirm a significant shift in the economy, rather than relying on a single data point. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, for example, produces a monthly coincident index for each of the 50 states, combining four state-level indicators to summarize current economic conditions in a single statistic.
8## Hypothetical Example
Consider a hypothetical country, "Econoland," where analysts closely monitor gleichlaufende Indikatoren to gauge economic health. In January, Econoland's Industrieproduktion increases by 0.5%, the Arbeitslosenquote falls by 0.1 percentage point, and Einzelhandelsumsätze rise by 0.3%. All these indicators show positive movement, suggesting a healthy, ongoing economic expansion.
In February, industrial production stagnates, the unemployment rate slightly ticks up, and retail sales decline. This broad softening across multiple gleichlaufende Indikatoren signals that the economic expansion might be losing momentum, indicating a potential slowdown. While not a forecast, this real-time data helps policymakers and businesses understand the current shift in conditions, allowing them to adjust strategies accordingly.
Practical Applications
Gleichlaufende Indikatoren are integral to real-time economic analysis and decision-making for various entities. Governments and central banks use them to assess the immediate impact of Monetäre Politik and fiscal measures on the economy. For instance, a central bank might observe the latest data on Bruttoinlandsprodukt, nonfarm payroll employment, or manufacturing and trade sales to understand the current economic landscape before making policy adjustments.
Businesses and investors rely on these indicators to gain a clearer picture of present market conditions. A business might use current sales figures and employment data to make inventory decisions or adjust staffing levels. Investors consider the overall health reflected by these indicators when making portfolio adjustments, particularly in sectors sensitive to the current Wirtschaftswachstum. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis's FRED database, for example, provides detailed data series for the Coincident Economic Activity Index, which includes nonfarm payroll employment, the unemployment rate, average hours worked in manufacturing, and wages and salaries, allowing for direct observation of these key measures., Su7c6h publicly available data is crucial for transparent economic analysis.
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) also compiles and publishes Composite Coincident Indicators for its member countries, designed to signal turning points in the business cycle relative to the GDP trend, offering an international perspective on economic health.,,
5#4#3 Limitations and Criticisms
Despite their utility, gleichlaufende Indikatoren have limitations. One primary criticism is that while they reflect the current state of the economy, they do not predict future trends. By the time a significant shift in coincident indicators is widely recognized, the economy may have already moved further into its new phase. This real-time aspect, while valuable, means they cannot serve as standalone tools for Ökonomische Prognose.
Another challenge stems from data revisions. Initial releases of economic data are often preliminary and subject to significant revisions as more complete information becomes available. These revisions can alter the perceived current state of the economy, leading to potential misinterpretations. For example, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia maintains a "Real-Time Data Research Center" that studies the implications of data revisions for macroeconomic analysis and policy., Thi2s1 highlights the fact that even seemingly real-time data can be subject to change, influencing how the current economic situation is understood. Furthermore, external shocks or unusual events can sometimes lead to mixed signals among different coincident indicators, complicating their interpretation. Analysts often use Regressionsanalyse and other statistical methods to better understand the relationships and account for potential noise in the data.
Gleichlaufende Indikatoren vs. Vorlaufende Indikatoren
Gleichlaufende Indikatoren (coincident indicators) and Vorlaufende Indikatoren (leading indicators) serve distinct purposes in economic analysis, though both are essential for understanding the Konjunkturzyklus. The key difference lies in their timing relative to the broader economy.
- Gleichlaufende Indikatoren: These move simultaneously with the overall economy, providing a real-time snapshot of current economic conditions. They tell us "what is happening now." Examples include Bruttoinlandsprodukt, Arbeitslosenquote, and Industrieproduktion.
- Vorlaufende Indikatoren: These change before the broader economy, providing signals about future economic trends. They aim to tell us "what is likely to happen next." Examples often include new building permits, stock market performance, and consumer sentiment like Verbrauchervertrauen.
While coincident indicators confirm the current state, leading indicators offer foresight, making them valuable for forecasting turning points in the economy. Analysts often use them in conjunction to get a comprehensive view: leading indicators to anticipate, and coincident indicators to confirm.
FAQs
What are common examples of gleichlaufende Indikatoren?
Common examples of gleichlaufende Indikatoren include nonfarm payroll employment, Industrieproduktion, personal income less transfer payments, and manufacturing and trade sales. These metrics typically move in step with overall economic activity.
How are gleichlaufende Indikatoren used in economic analysis?
Gleichlaufende Indikatoren are used to confirm the current state and phase of the Konjunkturzyklus. They help economists, businesses, and policymakers understand whether the economy is currently in a period of Expansion or Rezession, providing a real-time assessment of economic health.
Can gleichlaufende Indikatoren predict future economic trends?
No, gleichlaufende Indikatoren primarily reflect current economic conditions and do not predict future trends. For forecasting, analysts typically rely on Vorlaufende Indikatoren, which tend to change before the broader economy.
Why are data revisions a concern for gleichlaufende Indikatoren?
Data revisions can be a concern because initial estimates of gleichlaufende Indikatoren are often preliminary and can be significantly adjusted later. These revisions can alter the perceived current economic picture, potentially leading to different conclusions about the economy's real-time performance.