Horizontale analyse

Horizontale Analyse: Definition, Beispiel und Anwendungen

Horizontale analyse, also known as trend analysis or comparative analysis, is a technique used in financial statement analysis that examines financial data over several accounting periods. This method helps identify trends, patterns, and significant changes in a company's financial performance over time. It is a key component of financial analysis, which broadly falls under the category of financial management. By comparing historical data, analysts and investors can gain insights into a company's growth, stability, and operational efficiency.

History and Origin

The practice of analyzing financial information has roots dating back centuries, with early forms of bookkeeping and financial reporting existing even in ancient civilizations. However, the structured approach to analyzing financial statements as we know it today, including horizontal analysis, largely evolved with the advent of modern corporations and the need for greater transparency and accountability. The formalization of accounting principles and reporting standards, such as Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) in the United States and International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) globally, became critical, especially after economic upheavals like the Great Depression. Regulatory bodies, including the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), were established to enforce standardized financial reporting, promoting consistency and comparability across companies.⁴ The Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB), founded in 1973, took on the responsibility for developing and updating GAAP, providing the bedrock for reliable comparative data.³ This standardization was essential for horizontal analysis to become a robust tool, allowing investors and regulators to track changes in a company's financial health over extended periods.

Key Takeaways

• Horizontale analyse involves comparing financial data over multiple periods to identify trends.
• It typically expresses changes as absolute dollar amounts and percentages relative to a base period.
• This analysis is applied to all primary financial statements, including the income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement.
• It helps assess growth, decline, and stability, offering insights into a company's performance and operational changes.
• Understanding historical performance through horizontale analyse can aid in forecasting future financial outcomes and identifying potential risks or opportunities.

Formula and Calculation

Horizontale analyse calculates the absolute and percentage change of each line item from a base period to subsequent periods. The formula for the percentage change is:

Where:

• Current Period Value: The value of a specific line item (e.g., revenue, assets) in the most recent period being analyzed.
• Base Period Value: The value of the same line item in an earlier period chosen as the point of comparison.

The absolute change is simply the Current Period Value minus the Base Period Value. These calculations are performed for every relevant line item on the financial statements.

Interpreting the Horizontale Analyse

Interpreting horizontale analyse involves looking beyond just the numbers to understand the underlying business activities driving the changes. A consistent increase in revenue over several periods, for example, signals growth, but it's important to investigate whether that growth is sustainable. Conversely, a steady decline in net income might indicate deteriorating profitability or increasing expenses.

Analysts pay close attention to significant percentage changes. A large percentage increase in assets might suggest expansion, while a proportional increase in liabilities could raise concerns about solvency. It is crucial to evaluate these trends in the context of the company's industry, the overall economic cycle, and specific company events (e.g., acquisitions, new product launches).

Hypothetical Example

Consider a hypothetical company, "Global Innovations Inc.," and its revenue figures over three years:

• Year 1 (Base Period): Revenue = €10,000,000
• Year 2: Revenue = €12,000,000
• Year 3: Revenue = €11,500,000

To perform horizontale analyse:

Year 2 vs. Year 1:

• Absolute Change: €12,000,000 - €10,000,000 = €2,000,000
• Percentage Change: ($ \frac{\text{€2,000,000}}{\text{€10,000,000}} $) × 100% = 20% increase

Year 3 vs. Year 1:

• Absolute Change: €11,500,000 - €10,000,000 = €1,500,000
• Percentage Change: ($ \frac{\text{€1,500,000}}{\text{€10,000,000}} $) × 100% = 15% increase

Analysis:
Global Innovations Inc. experienced a strong 20% revenue growth from Year 1 to Year 2. However, Year 3 saw a slight decline in revenue compared to Year 2, though it remained 15% higher than the base Year 1. This horizontal analysis reveals a positive multi-year trend overall from the base period, but it also highlights a recent slowdown or dip that warrants further investigation, such as examining the income statement in more detail.

Practical Applications

Horizontale analyse is a fundamental tool for various stakeholders in the financial world:

• Investors: They use horizontale analyse to evaluate a company's past performance and project future trends, aiding in investment decisions. Analyzing trends in profitability, liquidity, and solvency can reveal the health and trajectory of a business. Publicly traded companies are required to file comprehensive financial statements with regulatory bodies like the SEC, which are freely accessible through systems like EDGAR, enabling investors to perform their own horizontal analysis.
• Management: Company² management utilizes this analysis to track their own performance against goals, identify operational inefficiencies, and make strategic decisions regarding resource allocation, pricing, and expansion.
• Creditors: Lenders assess a company's ability to repay debt by examining trends in cash flows, revenue, and financial ratios over time. Consistent growth and stable cash generation are positive indicators.
• Auditors: Auditors use horizontal analysis as part of their analytical procedures to identify unusual fluctuations or relationships in financial data that might indicate errors or potential fraud.
• Regulators: Government bodies and stock exchanges may use horizontal analysis to monitor compliance with financial reporting standards and to detect unusual patterns that could signal market manipulation or financial distress.

Limitations and Criticisms

While horizontale analyse is a powerful tool, it has limitations:

• Inflation Distortion: Comparing financial figures across several years can be distorted by inflation. If the purchasing power of currency changes significantly over time, historical nominal values may not accurately reflect real performance. Inflation can diminish the usefulness of financial statement information, potentially leading to misleading interpretations of profitability or asset values.
• Accounting Policy Cha¹nges: Companies may change their accounting policies or estimates over time (e.g., depreciation methods, inventory valuation), which can affect comparability. While standards promote consistency, minor shifts can still impact trends.
• Industry and Economic Factors: A company's performance trends are influenced by broader industry dynamics and the overall economic cycle. Horizontal analysis alone may not fully explain these external influences.
• Non-Financial Information: Horizontale analyse focuses solely on financial numbers and does not incorporate crucial non-financial factors such as management quality, technological advancements, competitive landscape, or customer satisfaction, all of which impact a company's long-term prospects.
• Base Period Selection: The choice of the base period can significantly influence the perceived trends. An unrepresentative base year (e.g., a year with unusual events) can skew all subsequent percentage changes.

Horizontale Analyse vs. Vertikale Analyse

Horizontale analyse and vertikale analyse are both essential components of comparative analysis, but they differ in their focus:

While horizontale analyse provides a dynamic view of a company's evolution, vertikale analyse offers a static, proportional snapshot, enabling better comparisons between companies of different sizes. Both techniques complement each other, providing a comprehensive understanding of a company's financial position and performance.

FAQs

What is the primary purpose of horizontale analyse?

The primary purpose of horizontale analyse is to identify trend analysis and patterns in a company's financial data over multiple accounting periods. It reveals whether items like revenue, expenses, or assets are increasing, decreasing, or remaining stable, offering insights into performance changes over time.

Which financial statements are used in horizontale analyse?

Horizontale analyse can be applied to all primary financial statements: the income statement (to analyze changes in sales, costs, and net income), the balance sheet (to analyze changes in assets, liabilities, and equity), and the cash flow statement (to analyze changes in cash inflows and outflows).

How does horizontale analyse help in forecasting?

By identifying historical trends, horizontale analyse provides a basis for forecasting future financial performance. If revenue has consistently grown by a certain percentage over several years, this historical growth rate can be used as a starting point for projections, although future performance is not guaranteed. It helps in making informed assumptions about a company's trajectory.